jeudi 11 octobre 2018

Demography and CO2 emission: one size does not fit all and the rest is propaganda based on scenario not science

The wide disparity in population increasing rates all over the world. From Wikipedia, 2000-2015


The first issue is the wide disparity in birth rates. The reason why the advice of fewer babies cannot be applied to all countries.






Birth rate (crude) for 1000 people.




This is discussed in this paper of the french press albeit partly:
"Certes le nombre d'êtres humains va croître et cette croissance va aggraver les problèmes écologiques, notamment dans les pays du sud où il n'y a guère d'adduction d'eau, de ramassage d'ordure et de transports publics. On sait que la natalité baisse quand les femmes sont éduquées et que le pays offre une protection sociale. Quand ce n'est pas le cas, pour toute mère, sa meilleure assurance est ses enfants et ce ne sont pas quelques livres pour jeunes Canadiens qui changeront cette vérité. Si donc l'on veut maîtriser la croissance de l'espèce humaine dans les pays du sud, c'est en les accompagnant dans le développement de l'éducation, notamment des filles, en développant des programmes portant sur les différentes méthodes de contraception et en créant des régimes de protection sociale. Le Rwanda semble montrer la voie. Il faut l'accompagner, l'aider, adapter son modèle à d'autres pays... mais ceci est une autre histoire."
http://www.lefigaro.fr/vox/societe/2018/10/10/31003-20181010ARTFIG00336-avoir-un-enfant-nuit-a-la-planete-quand-l-ecologie-deraille.php 

"Certainly the number of human beings will grow and this growth will aggravate the ecological problems, especially in southern countries where there is little water supply, garbage collection and public transport. We know that birth rates drop when women are educated and the country offers social protection. When this is not the case, for any mother, her best insurance is her children and it is not a few books for young Canadians that will change this truth. So if we want to control the growth of the human species in the southern countries, it is by accompanying them in the development of education, especially girls, by developing programs on different methods of contraception and by creating social protection schemes. Rwanda seems to show the way. It must accompany, help, adapt its model to other countries ... but this is another story."
AFP sent a first tweet and then a second: backsliding
One of the most appropriate answer:
"AFP propaganda fell short: those who need to reduce their birth rate don't have fossil fuel powered cars nor electricity. One size doesn't fit all and political ecology is a disaster for rationality. Apparently, AFP ignores the economics of carbon footprint."



So the most efficient decision everyone can make according to these simulations and scenarios is not appropriate for countries with a low birth rate.

http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aa7541/meta




https://www.statista.com/statistics/264687/countries-with-the-highest-population-growth-rate/











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