vendredi 8 avril 2016

Forecast of economic powers of 2040 by the last RW Fogel (NP)

http://www.nber.org/papers/w13184.pdf

Russia is not in the top 5. No surprise except for some east looking people in Europe. The EU will grow weakly and will lost its econ power.

Efficiency in unuseful actions



“There is nothing quite so useless as doing with great efficiency something that should not be done at all.”

Peter Drucker

Areva, EDF, SNCF, CNCM, Huchon, Royal: l'effondrement financier

Un pays qui s'occupe des Panama Papers alors que ses politiques sont en train de le ruiner mérite de connaître la faillite.

mercredi 6 avril 2016

The list of countries which destroyed value by expelling Jews from their land.


Il y a 8 494 400 habitants en Israel. 
2016-028,489.42016-02
Balance commerciale d'Israel
Résultats encourageants sur le plan économique 


LE at birth for jewish males 

LE at birth for jewish females



Ischaemic Heart Diseases - Total Population, Males-Years Adjusted-Rates per 100000
Malignant Neoplasm - Total Population, Males-Years Adjusted-Rates per 100000
Cerebrovascular Diseases - Total Population, Males-Years Adjusted-Rates per 100000

Blue CVD, Red cancers and yellow cerebrovascular diseases



Ischaemic Heart Diseases - Total Population, Females-Years Adjusted-Rates per 100000
Malignant Neoplasm - Total Population, Females-Years Adjusted-Rates per 100000
Cerebrovascular Diseases - Total Population, Females-Years Adjusted-Rates per 100000




Same colours, cancers are still plaguing Israelis especially males at the same rate than in 1970 

It seems that those Jews expelled from countries where they lost the majority of their assets did get a second chance in Israel even in term of LE.








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Carbon tax and the collapse of gas prices: a failure for pigovian taxes?

Why carbon taxes will not work in this setting.
"Look at it this way. 
A study by Michael Greenstone and Thomas Covert of the University of Chicago and Professor Knittel concluded that at current battery prices, for an electric vehicle to be cheaper to run than a gas-power car, oil would have to cost $350 a barrel. Last year, it averaged $50. To make up the difference would require a carbon tax of $700 a ton of carbon dioxide."

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/02/business/does-a-carbon-tax-work-ask-british-columbia.html?smid=pl-share&_r=0


Flu vaccine

http://cid.oxfordjournals.org/content/early/2016/03/10/cid.ciw082.abstract


"Population-Based Retrospective Cohort Study"
In one word it is very difficult to get a causation link with this kind of study.
0.5 vs 0.3/100 000 another time with such a magnitude of the supposed effect causation is far from probable even if the stats tell us a CI of less than 5% to be wrong.
It is is just a trend which has to be proved by a RCT.

dimanche 3 avril 2016

Le conservatisme français balbutie

"Quand la politique fait défaut - et c'est l'honneur d'une partie de la gauche de n'avoir cessé de le rappeler -, c'est toujours le plus faible et le plus fragile dans la société qui en paie le prix."
Cette assertion est totalement contredite par la réalité. Quand l'État dépense 57,5 % du PIB il n'y a plus d'opportunités pour ceux qui veulent entrer dans l'économie. Il ne leur reste que les trappes sociales.

Imre Kertész

RIP
"On prenait possession de ma conscience, elle était cernée de toutes part: on m'éduquait."
IK